The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam

Abstract

Many Asian cities are experiencing rapid growth in the ownership of personal gasoline powered motorcycles, a shift away from relatively low-emitting modes of transportation that is contributing to deteriorated air quality. Electric two-wheelers have the potential for significant air pollution reductions as an alternative to gasoline-powered motorcycles; however, they have yet to penetrate many Asian markets. While previous research has examined the adoption of cleaner alternatives to gasoline-powered automobiles (e.g., hybrid electric cars), similar work on motorcycle alternatives is lacking. This study uses a stated preference survey of households in Hanoi, Vietnam to analyze adoption of electric two-wheelers, while focusing on the effects of economic incentives (e.g., differential sales taxes and fuel prices) and technological improvements (e.g., more efficient batteries). A choice model is estimated and market shares are calculated for scenarios involving different levels of electric two-wheeler technology, gasoline prices, and sales tax rates. Results indicate that technological improvements and economic incentives, particularly sales taxes, have significant effects on adoption.

Author

Jones, Luke R. Cherry, Christopher R. Vu, Tuan A. Nguyen, Quang N.

Journal

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2013

Keywords

Electric scooter, Motorcycle , Stated preference, Vehicle choice, Technology adoption, Economic ince

References

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2013.09.003